The Institute (協会)

I guess we're behind the curve here in Chatty, as there seems to be enough work to go around at the moment.

Funny. I feel just the opposite.

I guess my circles are rather small. I can think of maybe 2 people I know of looking for work right now, and one just found a good job.

A recession? Are you reading Gary North?
The Fed would have to start deflating, or severely limit inflation to really prompt a recession.
What we have is: uncertainty.
Why? Too much fraud by financial institutions.
The solution: time, and open markets.
But recession? If so, it is very very mild.
Nathan

Gary North? Is he still alive?

I notice that gas prices have gone up a lot in the past few weeks, but I don't know if that's tied to the so-called recession. But the cost of my rent went down, and I got two job offers in the same week. If this is what a recession is like, then I say bring it on. Seriously, though, I don't if I actually notice an economic downturn at all, except for lots of for sale signs on houses. But there's "now hiring" signs everywhere.

You cannot an economy is in recession until is shows negative growth for two quarters. Slowing growth is not a recession.

From the Economist, April 10th:

The official judges of American downturns—a group of academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—define a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.” (Contrary to popular belief, recession does not require two consecutive quarters of falling output.) Though the NBER's wonks will not pronounce for many months, their criteria look increasingly likely to be met.

Gary North. Alive. Lew Rockwell's site.
Okay, so *I've* been reading North...
But I don't think we are in a recession. And neither do most of the econ professors at NC State, whom I just had dinner with discussing the subject.

Or maybe they are just playing semantics. Because if there is a recession there is usually just one response: The Fed should Do Something.

The danger there is that usually when the Fed or the Gov't tries to do something for us, they usually end up doing it to us.

So, many economists are saying there is a recession so the Fed will do something (which they will then write about and get published).
Other (good) economists might be saying there isn't so that the Fed and the three people running for president don't try to do something.

In the meantime, what do you hear about the Hauerwas Mafia in Emergent?

I don't know about the technical aspects, but I know that gas is breaking our checking account, groceries have gone WAY up, and Panera is actually advertising/apologizing for rising menu prices due to the rising price of wheat. We're definitely tightening our belts.

Yup, North is alive, and writing at least one column per week for LewRockwell. He also has an almost daily newsletter, I believe.

The trouble with saying "we're in a recession" is the definition; isn't it something like two or three quarters of negative economic growth? By the time you know for sure you're in one, it's often half over.

At least unless the Fed decides to "help" with inflationary monetary policy, bailing out the perps who issued bad loans and penalizing the rest of us with good credit in the process.

Oh, and Q1 stats are....up in terms of economic growth. Like it or not, we are not technically in a recession. Tough times for a lot of homeowners with a lot of debt, but not a recession yet. Can't be proven until early 2009.