The Institute (協会)

the man is trying to nail down the vice presidential nomination. just makin' sure. he's showing mccain that he can win the bible belt/ southern states, where mccain might falter.

also...he isnt spending that much money in comparision to the other canidates....but has gain a large following...

I am not a huge fan of his....but he has been able to get votes without the huge "money machine".....

Huck as McCain's VP? Over Lieberman? Really? McCain's got the hawks, which overlap heavily with the Bible belt. They're gonna vote Republican regardless. He doesn't need Huck's help. He needs to get more support from libertarian (notice, does not = "fair tax") voters or from moderates further to the left, who support the war.

It is a lost cause either way, but I'm hoping he'll lean libertarian, but his friendship with Lieberman gets him a sizable portion of south Florida, and we all know how important that can be.
Nathanael Snow

I actually agree with both John and Nathanael. I think Huckabee is trying to pick up a number of additional states and nail the VP nomination. When Romney was still in the mix, I figured he wanted to put himself in the position of king-maker, but now McCain is pretty much a lock. And I also think that McCain will name Leiberman as his VP candidate.

Man, it looks like (especially tonight) that it's going to shape up to be a McCain vs. Obama election. And I gotta say, I think Barack's gonna win.

libertarians? all five of them?

ahhh, the VP thing. Makes sense.

Huckabee's trying to get a brokered convention. If McCain doesn't get the majority of delegates needed to win the election, then it goes to a brokered convention and it's potentially anybody's game. That also may be why Romney just "suspended" his campaign.

jamie, this is good stuff!! I never knew that. Can you explain the whole "brokered convention" to us. How does that work? The thread is yours bro!

i wouldn't be suprised if that is what happens for the democrats...and if it does i would be surprised if clinton doesn't pull it out because of their long standing political ties.

Yeah, so based on republican party rules, a nominee must get half of the number of total delegates plus 1 to secure the nomination. That is 1191 for republicans. If nobody gets 1191 say because 3 or more people have some delegates, then they have a "brokered convention" which means that many of the delegates are released from being bound to vote for the person that they went there to vote for. As far as I know, whether or not the delegates are released to vote for whom they please is up to the state that sends them to the convention. This wikipedia page helps explain it too. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

Oh yeah, and because some states are winner-take-all in the primaries, in a brokered convention if those delegates released to vote for who they want, significant changes could happen.

"significant changes could happen."

i.e. Missouri where the vote went almost dead even 3 ways...

I don't know the inner workings of the primaries and such. It seems to me that one thing he may be doing is trying to make a point about Evangelicals and the Republican party. He is showing that though Evangelicals agree with the Republican party on some issues, there is not total agreement and the GOP needs to recognize that. He is trying to show that not everyone in the Republican party is wealthy/elite/entrenched/uncaring. The fact that he has been ruled out from the beginning because he doesn't have money and has still gotten this far proves his point. The power Republicans have wanted him to drop out from the beginning because he doesn't fit their mold. Apparently many voters are rejecting that mold as well. Even if he doesn't win, he is positioning himself to speak for this base in the future. IMHO

VP and brokered convention make sense. Another possibility is that he's simply one that understands the need to play into the fourth quarter, even if he's losing badly.

And finally, remember that the 1969 Cubs had it all wrapped up, too. Right?

Wow, Jamie, gracias!! That was super helpful! You're hired!!

All of this seems pretty moot now. It looks like Romney is going to endorse McCain. If (and that's an 'if') all his delegates support McCain, then he's around one hundred delegates away from clinching the nomination. Seems like a lock now to me.